Academy Awards Predictions

As you know, tonight is The Academy Awards.

I’ve been a “Movie Guy” for about 10 years now. I read film websites every single day, some of which i’ve contributed to. I go to the movies several times a month. And, i always, always, always watch the Academy Awards. In fact, I always make predictions.

I’ve had a good run on predictions in my life. If you don’t remember, i predicted the Super Bowl score to within a few points earlier this month. When i saw the movie Collateral a few years ago, i walked out of the theater and said, “Jaime Foxx will get nominated for Best Supporting Actor for that film.” He did. And of course, who could forget when I predicted 9/11?

I’m like fucking Nostradamus.

Anyway, here are my Oscar Predictions. The winners are in red.


Black Swan
The Social Network
The Fighter
The Kids Are Alright
127 Hours
Toy Story 3
The King’s Speech
Winter’s Bone
True Grit

This isn’t too hard a pick. There really were some great movies this year, and i’ve seen all of these but 2 (127 Hours and The Fighter), but The Social Network is the clear favorite. Black Swan would have won this in any other year.


Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
David Fincher – The Social Network
David O. Russel – The Fighter
The King’s Speech – Tom Hooper
Joel & Ethan Coen – True Grit

The hardest category to pick for me. I love David Fincher to death, and I think he did everything he needed to do to win this award, but I think Aronofsky has the slight edge. But SUPER slight. Black Swan just did a great job with the pacing, and that sinister tone. But…The Social Network did too…oh god. I might change this…


Javier Bardem – Biutiful
Jeff Bridges – True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
James Franco – 127 Hours

Pretty easy pick. Colin Firth slam dunked that MF’er. Two-Handed Windmill.


Annette Bening – The Kids Are Alright
Nicole Kidman – The Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone
Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine
Natalie Portman – Black Swan

There was a lot of speculation that Annette Bening might win this…and I love her…but sorry. Portman wins. She was absolutely brilliant. When I saw the film, I walked out of the theater and said, “Just give her the Academy Award.” But hey…credit to Jennifer Lawrence for breaking my heart in Winter’s Bone.


Christian Bale – The Fighter
John Hawkes – Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner – The Town
Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are Alright
Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech

I would say that Geoffrey Rush should win this, but I don’t think he will. There’s a LOT of buzz around Christian Bale for his role as the crack-addled brother in The Fighter. I’m ok with it, I guess. BUT…Hawkes and Ruffalo were great in their roles too. Just sayin’. Shame we can only pick one.


Amy Adams – The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
Melissa Leo – The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit
Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom

Who? Hailee Fucking Steinfeld, that’s who. She stole every scene she was in, and that’s hard to do when she shared every scene with Academy Award winner Jeff Bridges. Wouldn’t be surprised if the Academy flubbed this and gave it to Amy Adams though. They love her.


Black Swan
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

Nothing this year really said, “pick me! pick me!” which is a bummer because I LOVE good cinematography. Oddly enough, one of my favorite-photographed movies is No Country For Old Men, which was done by the same guy as True Grit. So, i give it to him. Social Network was pretty great though, and so was The King’s Speech, strangely. But, i’ll stick to True Grit.


Another Year
The Fighter
The Kids Are Alright
The King’s Speech

The King’s Speech by default. Everything else was good, but not great. Plus, the Academy loves that uplifting shit.


127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

I sorta like Winter’s Bone here, but it’s pretty easy. Social Network was really stinkin’ good.


The Illusionist
Toy Story 3
How to Train Your Dragon

Really? Do we even need to discuss?

Other Winners I’d Like to Predict:

Best Editing: The Social Network
Exquisitely great. The boat racing scene? Yeah.

Original Score: The Social Network
Hate Trent Reznor. Love his soundtrack. “Hand Covers Bruise” is magic.

Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross – Hand Covers Bruise

There you have it. I feel pretty good about these predictions, but who knows. Also, Exit Through the Gift Shop was a great documentary, but i have a hunch that Restrepo will win.

And i’m out!


I went 8/12, which isn’t bad…but it’s not good enough. Not surprisingly, i blame the Academy rather than myself. The King’s Speech was a great movie, but we won’t be talking about it in 5 years. Promise. The Social Network and Black Swan are the two movies that will be remembered. Mark it.


6 responses

  1. David

    You hold The Social Network way too high my friend. I would have to disagree with your picks the most on editing and screenplay and I might have to throw in Best Picture but I can see Social Network winning.

    February 27, 2011 at 12:24 pm

  2. Nah fool. You’ll see. It’ll dominate tonight. It’s really, REALLY good, technically-speaking. It’s a sparkling gem. The opening scene, and the scene with the credits as he runs back to his dorm room, and the boat race scene…go back and watch those. The tone of the movie is pitch-perfect, but it’s lost on a lot of people because it’s not a a measurable. It’s an intangible.

    February 27, 2011 at 1:07 pm

  3. David

    I thought it was good but there was nothing that stood out as best to me. Yes there were some really good scenes, I loved the opening scene and the bat race scene, but when I walked out it wasn’t something that stuck with me and made me think “Wow, this is going to be the best movie of the year.” Now the reason I will not argue for sure that this will not win is the fact that no movies this year left me thinking that they were for sure going to win. I think there was a lot of good but very little great in the movies last year.

    February 27, 2011 at 1:46 pm

  4. David

    Also, I disagreed with this statement you made “Plus, the Academy loves that uplifting shit.” I think one of the last 6 best picture winners was uplifting and had a good ending. The Academy loves the tragic tale.

    February 27, 2011 at 1:49 pm

  5. Donna

    Melissa Leo was the standout in The Fighter, head and shoulders above Amy Adams. Hailee Steinfeld was great also, but Melissa Leo’s performance was genius.

    February 27, 2011 at 6:13 pm

  6. Garrison

    That’s one for Donna.

    February 27, 2011 at 9:11 pm

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s